Long-Range Forecasting for Multiple Indications

Commercial leaders at a small biopharma company needed to enhance their long-range valuation forecast to include more patient flow concepts, granular biomarker segmentation, extension across multiple tumor types, and flexibility for scenario testing.

Our team began by designing the forecast model, outlining its initial framework. We reviewed existing materials (e.g., competitive landscape, situation analysis) to help organize available inputs and assumptions that would drive the model. We also generated a gap analysis to identify missing information and determine how it could be obtained. We then created an initial model workbook, broken down by cancer type and biomarker / mutation segment. Desk research helped to fill in missing inputs and assumptions. Through working sessions with the client, we gathered feedback on core forecast input functionality and available outputs. Finally, we incorporated the client’s feedback into the design and created a “Forecast User Guide.”

The commercial team was able to create a usable, dynamic forecast that had the flexibility to assess multiple scenarios across tumor types and biomarker / mutation segments. This helped inform short-term supply chain and long-term valuation questions with a higher degree of understanding and specificity. While the client team was able to obtain the direct answers they needed for forecasting questions from their Board, the model was built in such a way that enabled them to continuously refine assumptions to answer ongoing questions from the organization.