Commercial Assessment & Top-Line Forecast for a Target Asset

A mid-size public pharmaceutical company was assessing the potential acquisition or in-licensing of an asset in nephrology. Company leaders asked Blue Matter to conduct a top-line commercial diligence on the opportunity.

Our team began by conducting detailed secondary research on disease background, epidemiology, treatment journey, treatment paradigm, and current usage / coverage. This robust market landscape informed our market research design, which focused on a balance of academic and high-volume community prescribers. Our goal was to understand the impact of recent approvals—as well as the expected impact of potential approvals—on future prescribing behavior. Based on primary and secondary research, we built a top-line revenue forecast, including additional detailed diligence on duration of therapy assumptions, patent life considerations, and multiple competitive scenarios. We then socialized our findings and provided a go/no-go recommendation to the client.

Our project outputs provided the client with a robust understanding of the commercial opportunity for the asset and were used during multiple Board of Director discussions and subsequent internal C-suite discussions. We informed the client’s decision not to move forward with the deal.